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基于AHP-FCE的高海拔地区输变电工程风险评价研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Power Transmission and Transformation Engineering in High-Altitude Areas Based on AHP-FCE

  • 摘要: 随着我国能源战略向西部高海拔地区推进,输变电工程在高海拔、复杂环境下的建设需求日益增加。然而,高海拔地区的低氧、低温、强紫外线辐射及复杂地形等特殊条件,显著增加了工程风险。以某高海拔地区110 kV输变电工程为研究对象,结合层次分析法(AHP)与模糊综合评价法(FCE),系统识别并评估了工程中的环境、技术、安全等关键风险因素,构建了电力系统安全生产管理评价模型。通过构建多层次风险评价指标体系,计算各风险权重并确定整体风险等级评价,可为类似高海拔输变电工程的风险管理提供科学参考和借鉴。

     

    Abstract: With the advancement of China's energy strategy to the high-altitude areas in the west, the construction demand for power transmission and transformation projects in high-altitude and complex environments is increasing. However, special conditions such as low oxygen, low temperature, strong ultraviolet radiation and complex terrain in high-altitude areas significantly increase the project risk. In this paper, a 110 kV power transmission and transformation project in a high-altitude area is taken as the research object, combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE), the key risk factors such as environment, technology, and safety in the project are systematically identified and evaluated, and the evaluation model of power system safety production management is constructed. By constructing a multi-level risk evaluation index system, the weights of each risk are calculated and the overall risk level evaluation is determined. The results of this paper can provide scientific reference and reference for the risk management of similar high-altitude power transmission and transformation projects.

     

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