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考虑光功率波动的集中式光伏发电超短期功率预测方法

Prediction Method for Ultra Short Term Power of Centralized Photovoltaic Power Generation Considering Fluctuations in Optical Power

  • 摘要: 针对光伏发电超短期功率预测工作通常依靠支持向量机获取预测结果,在动态复杂场景下的预测准确性偏低的问题,提出考虑光功率波动的集中式光伏发电超短期功率预测方法。应用Hilbert变换算法预处理历史发电功率数据,并分析功率波动的时频熵特征。依托多个分时长短期记忆神经网络建立智能预测模型,通过捕捉功率波动特征之间的长期依赖关系,准确推导出超短期光伏发电功率预测值。实验结果表明,通过该方法得到的功率预测值均方根误差始终低于1 MW,提升了光伏发电功率预测准确性。

     

    Abstract: The ultra short term power prediction of photovoltaic power generation usually relies on support vector machines to obtain prediction results, and the prediction accuracy is low in dynamic and complex scenarios. Therefore, a prediction method for ultra short term power of centralized photovoltaic power generation considering fluctuations in optical power is proposed. Apply Hi1bert transform algorithm to preprocess historical power generation data and analyze the time-frequency entropy characteristics of power fluctuations. Based on multiple time-sharing short-term memory neural networks, an intelligent prediction model is established to accurately derive ultra short term photovoltaic power generation prediction values by capturing long-term dependencies between power fluctuation characteristics. The experimental results show that the root mean square error of the power prediction value provided by this method is always below 1 MW, which improves the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation prediction.

     

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