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基于二次分解重构及改进NGO优化TCN-BiLSTM-Attention组合的短期电力负荷预测

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Secondary Decomposition Reconstruction and Improved NGO Optimized TCN-BiLSTM-Attention Combination

  • 摘要: 针对电力负荷数据波动性强、多特征耦合、噪声干扰等因素导致预测精度不足的问题,提出了一种基于二次分解重构及改进NGO优化TCN-BiLSTM-Attention组合的短期电力负荷预测方法。首先,采用Spearman系数分析法筛选出与负荷相关性较强的影响特征。然后,为了降低负荷序列的随机性和波动性,利用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解将负荷序列分解为模态分量集合;其次,基于样本熵计算将各模态聚合为高、中、低3个频段,再利用变分模态分解对高频分量进行二次分解,以进一步降低负荷序列的复杂度;最后,将重构后的各模态分量与筛选的强相关特征共同输入所提的组合模型中进行预测,通过对各分量预测结果进行加权融合,得到最终的预测值。基于澳大利亚某地电力负荷数据进行算例分析,结果表明所提方法相较于其他对比模型,RMSE、MAE和MAPE分别最多降低了57.9%、54.6%和55.6%。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy caused by factors such as strong volatility of power load data, multi-feature coupling and noise interference, a short-term power load forecasting method based on secondary decomposition reconstruction and improved NGO optimized TCN-BiLSTM-Attention combination is proposed. First, the Spearman coefficient analysis method is used to select influencing features with strong load correlation. Then, in order to reduce the randomness and volatility of the load sequence, the load sequence is decomposed into a set of modal components using fully adaptive noise ensemble empirical mode decomposition; secondly, based on sample entropy calculation, each mode is aggregated into three frequency bands of high, medium and low, and then the high-frequency component is secondary decomposed using variational mode decomposition to further reduce the complexity of the load sequence. Finally, the reconstructed modal components and the screened strongly correlated features are input into the proposed combined model for prediction, and the final prediction value is obtained by weighted fusion of the prediction results of each component. An example analysis is carried out using power load data from a certain place in Australia. The experimental results show that compared with other comparative models, the RMSE, MAE and MAPE of the proposed method are reduced by 57.9%, 54.6% and 55.6% respectively, which proves that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.

     

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