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基于特征融合与XGBoost-LSTM的变压器油中溶解气体浓度预测

Predicting Dissolved Gas Concentration in Transformer Oil Based on Feature Fusion and XGBoost-LSTM

  • 摘要: 油中溶解气体浓度的预测可为电力变压器状态评估与早期故障诊断提供重要的数据依据,为此提出一种结合极限梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost)特征选择与长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory network,LSTM)时序建模的混合预测模型,用于变压器油中溶解气体浓度预测。该模型通过互信息熵分析筛选关键特征,再采用双层LSTM网络捕捉气体浓度变化的时序依赖关系。最后通过实验验证表明,该混合模型相比传统差分自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)和单一LSTM模型,预测平均绝对误差降低32.7%,决定系数R2提升至0.921。研究表明该混合模型具备较高的实用潜力,可作为变压器在线监测系统的核心预测模块。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of the dissolved gas concentration in oil can provide important data basis for the condition assessment and early fault diagnosis of power transformers. Therefore, a hybrid prediction model combining feature selection of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and time series modeling of long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed, which is used for predicting the dissolved gas concentration in transformer oil. This model screens key features through mutual information entropy analysis, and then uses a two-layer LSTM network to capture the time series dependence of the gas concentration changes. Finally, through experimental verification, compared with the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)and single LSTM models, the average absolute error of prediction of this hybrid model is reduced by 32.7%, and the coefficient of determination R2 is increased to 0.921. It shows that this hybrid model has high practical potential and can be used as the core prediction module of the online monitoring system for transformers.

     

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