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数据驱动的燃煤发电机组能耗预测模型研究

Research on Data-driven Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Coal-fired Power Generation Units

  • 摘要: 随着电力工业的不断发展,煤炭、石油、电力和水资源等能源资源的消耗量也在不断增加。只有合理配置这些重要的战略资源,才能促进国民经济的可持续长期发展。为了实现节能减排,针对某燃煤电厂中660 MW规模的燃煤火力发电机组,通过不同数据驱动模型方法开展探究,分析各数据驱动模型的特点以及适应条件,为能耗建模提供技术手段,对同类型燃煤火力发电机组节能减排具有借鉴意义。在4个数据驱动模型中,LSTM模型在燃煤发电机组能耗建模中表现出优秀的拟合能力和泛化能力,在训练集和测试集上机组煤耗的预测RMSE分别为0.05 g/(kWh和0.09 g/(kWh),MAPE分别为0.02%和0.03%,R均为1;而SVR的建模效果最差,在训练集和测试集上机组煤耗的预测RMSE分别为1.25 g/(kWh)和1.58 g/(kWh),MAPE分别为0.96%和1.28%,R分别为0.93和0.89。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous development of the power industry, the consumption of energy resources such as coal, oil, electricity, and water is also increasing. Only by properly allocating these important strategic resources can we promote the sustainable long-term development of the national economy. In order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, this study explores the 660 MW coal-fired power generation units in a coal-fired power plant through different data-driven model methods, analyzes the characteristics and adaptation conditions of each data-driven model, and provides technical means for energy consumption modeling. This study has reference significance for energy conservation and emission reduction of similar coal-fired power generation units. Among the four data-driven models, the LSTM model demonstrated excellent fitting and generalization abilities in modeling the energy consumption of coal-fired power generation units. The predicted RMSE of unit coal consumption on the training and testing sets were 0.05 g/(kWh) and 0.09 g/(kWh), respectively, the MAPE values were 0.02% and 0.03%, respectively, with a correlation of 1; however, SVR has the worst modeling performance, with predicted RMSE of 1.25 g/(kWh) and 1.58 g/(kWh) for unit coal consumption on the training and testing sets, respectively, the MAPE values were 0.96% and 1.28%, respectively, with correlations of 0.93 and 0.89.

     

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