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基于因素分析模型的电力企业售电收入预测研究

Research on Forecast of Sales Revenue of Electric Power Enterprises Based on Factor Analysis Model

  • 摘要: 聚焦电力企业售电收入的精准预测,构建基于因素分析的综合预测模型。剖析宏观经济环境、市场政策导向、企业运营效能及用户行为特征四大核心维度,通过皮尔逊相关系数法筛选关键影响因素,并采用主成分分析(PCA)技术实现数据降维,提炼出经济因子、政策因子及技术因子三大核心成分。在此基础上,构建多元线性回归预测模型,并引入岭回归算法有效解决了多重共线性问题,显著提升了模型预测精度。以国家电网某省电力公司的实际数据为样本,验证了模型预测误差在±2%以内。研究充分证明了综合预测模型在售电收入预测中的适用性和可靠性。

     

    Abstract: Focusing on the accurate prediction of electricity sales revenue of electric power enterprises, this paper innovatively constructs a comprehensive forecasting model based on factor analysis. In-depth analysis of macroeconomic environment, market policy orientation, enterprise operation efficiency and user behavior characteristics of the four core dimensions, through Pearson correlation coefficient method scientific selection of key influencing factors, and the use of principal component analysis (PCA) technology to achieve data dimensionality reduction, extract economic factors, policy factors and technical factors three core components. On this basis, the multiple linear regression prediction model is constructed, and the ridge regression algorithm is introduced to effectively solve the multicollinearity problem and significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the model. With the actual data of a provincial power company of the State Grid as the validation sample, the prediction error of the model is successfully controlled within ±2%, which fully proves the applicability and reliability of the model in the forecast of electricity sales revenue.

     

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