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基于空间建模和人工神经网络的太阳能负荷预测

Solar Load Forecasting Based on Spatial Modeling and Artificial Neural Networks

  • 摘要: 由于太阳能具有随机性和波动性强的特点,影响电网的安全运行,因此对太阳能负荷进行预测并提前对电网进行规划是十分必要的。为此,提出一种基于空间建模和人工神经网络的预测新方法,该方法无需庞大的数据样本库,只基于设置在光伏发电系统4个网格点的天气信息数据就可进行准确的预测。相比于传统模型,该模型具有自我学习能力,可通过不断迭代来实现减小误差。验证结果表明该模型可基于有限的数据输出准确度高的预测数据。

     

    Abstract: Solar energy has the characteristics of strong randomness and volatility, which is a challenge for the safe operation of the power grid. It is necessary to forecast the solar load and plan the grid in advance. In this study, a new prediction method based on spatial modeling and artificial neural networks is proposed. This method does not need a huge data sample base, only based on the weather information data set in the four grid points of the photovoltaic power generation system, and can be accurately predicted. Compared with the traditional model, this model has the ability of self-learning and can be iterated continuously to reduce the error. The verification results show that the model can output high accuracy prediction data based on limited data.

     

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