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基于PKO-TCN-GRU-Attention的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on PKO-TCN-GRU-Attention

  • 摘要: 准确预测电力负荷需求对于优化发电和调度计划、提升经济效益及保障电网安全运行至关重要,为此,提出一种基于花斑翠鸟优化算法(PKO)优化TCN-GRU-Attention的短期电力负荷预测模型。该模型首先通过PKO对TCN-GRU网络进行超参数寻优,再通过时序卷积网络(TCN)对数据进行特征提取,最后由门控循环单元(GRU)和自注意力机制(Self-Attention)捕捉并记忆数据长时间依赖信息。通过对2023年我国南方某地总负荷数据集进行仿真验证分析,预测模型PKO-TCN-GRU-Attention输出均方根误差、平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差、决定系数分别为25.419、18.236、1.064%、0.994,证明该模型在实际环境应用下的泛化性及可靠性。

     

    Abstract: Accurately predicting power load demand is crucial for optimizing power generation and scheduling plans, improving economic efficiency, and ensuring the safe operation of the power grid. A short-term power load forecasting model based on the Spotted Kingfisher Optimization Algorithm(PKO) optimized TCN-GRU Attention is proposed for this purpose. The model first performs hyperparameter optimization on the TCN-GRU network through PKO, then extracts features from the data through a temporal convolutional network(TCN), and finally captures and remembers long-term dependency information of the data through a gated recurrent unit(GRU) and self attention mechanism(Self-Attention). Through simulation verification analysis of the total load dataset of a certain location in southern China in 2023, the prediction model PKO-TCN-GRU Attention outputs root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and coefficient of determination of 25.419, 18.236, 1.064%, and 0.994, respectively, proving the generalization and reliability of the model in practical environmental applications.

     

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