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基于时序数据分析的风机叶片结冰预测算法研究

Research on Wind Turbine Blade Icing Prediction Algorithm Based on Time Series Data Analysis

  • 摘要: 结冰会导致叶片气动性能下降,增加风机负荷,对风电场的运行效率和运行安全产生一定影响。为了有效预测风机叶片结冰情况,提出一种基于时序数据分析的风机叶片结冰预测算法。在明确数据来源的基础上,基于线性插值法与3σ原则对已有数据进行填补与修正;提取修正处理后的风机叶片多维度运行时序数据,结合长短期记忆网络实现风机叶片结冰预测。实验结果表明,所设计方法对风机叶片实际结冰情况的捕捉能力较强,能够精准、有效地预测风机叶片的结冰情况,为风机运行安全维护工作的优化提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Icing conditions generally lead to a decrease in blade aerodynamic performance and an increase in turbine load, which poses a threat to the operational efficiency and operational safety of wind farms. In this regard, in order to achieve effective prediction of wind turbine blade icing, a wind turbine blade icing prediction algorithm based on time series data analysis is proposed. On the basis of clarifying the data source, the existing data are filled and corrected based on the linear interpolation method and the 3σ principle, and the corrected and processed multi-dimensional time series data of wind turbine blades are extracted and combined with the long and short-term memory network to achieve the prediction of wind turbine blade icing. The experimental results show that the design method is capable of capturing the actual icing situation of fan blades, and can accurately and effectively predict the icing situation of fan blades, which provides a new research programme reference for the optimization of the operation and maintenance of fan safety.

     

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