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基于数据驱动的有源配电网智能转供与风险预警研究

Research on Intelligent Power Transfer and Risk Warning for Active Distribution Networks Based on Data-driven

  • 摘要: 针对分布式电源高比例、大范围接入导致的配电网负荷特性变化,配电网负荷转供复杂度增加以及转供后可能存在的重过载风险等问题,提出基于数据驱动的有源配电网智能转供与风险预警研究方法。首先,基于深度确定性策略梯度(DDPG)算法快速自适应生成有源配电网初始转供方案;其次,建立以卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)为核心的净负荷预测模型,实现转供后精准的净负荷预测;最后,基于净负荷预测结果建立重过载风险预警机制,保障转供后有源配电网安全稳定运行。

     

    Abstract: A data-driven research method for intelligent transfer and risk warning of active distribution networks is proposed to address issues such as changes in distribution network load characteristics caused by high proportion and large-scale access of distributed power sources, increased complexity of load transfer in distribution networks, and potential risks of heavy overload after transfer. Firstly, an initial transfer plan for the active distribution network is adaptively generated using the deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm. Next, a net load forecasting model is established using a combination of convolutional neural networks and long short-term memory networks, enabling precise net load prediction after transfer. Finally, based on the forecasted net load, an overload risk warning mechanism is developed to ensure the safe and stable operation of the active distribution network after power transfer.

     

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