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新能源功率预测分析与算法研究

New Energy Power Prediction Analysis and Algorithm Research

  • 摘要: 功率预测是解决新能源发电波动性与随机性和提升电网调度安全性的重要途径。从不同角度分析了新能源发电带来的问题以及功率预测的偏差影响,提出了一种基于最小均方误差算法(Least Mean Square, LMS)自适应滤波与支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)的预测算法(AF-SVM)。其中,自适应滤波通过调整滤波权值让输出信号与期望信号间的均方误差最小化,从而可以优化预测模型。实验表明,该算法较传统的功率预测以及SVM算法在精度上表现更佳。

     

    Abstract: Power prediction is an important way to address the volatility and randomness brought by new energy generation and enhance the security of power grid dispatching. This paper analyzes the problems brought by new energy generation and the deviation impact of power prediction from different perspectives. This paper also proposes a prediction algorithm(AF-SVM) based on the combination of adaptive filtering and support vector machine(SVM). Herein, adaptive filtering minimizes the mean square error between the output signal and the expected signal by adjusting the filtering weights, thereby optimizing the prediction model. Experiments show that this algorithm performs better in accuracy than traditional power prediction and SVM algorithms.

     

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