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基于概率机器学习的锂离子电池健康状态评估与退化预测

Lithium-ion Battery Health Status Assessment and Degradation Prediction Based on Probabilistic Machine Learning

  • 摘要: 锂离子电池在电力储能中广泛应用,其容量与功率衰退问题凸显了健康状态(SOH)评估和退化预测的重要性。当前机器学习虽然已应用于电池性能模拟、状态估计等领域,但多数研究缺乏对预测不确定性的量化。电池衰退涉及SEI膜生长、电极开裂等多因素耦合作用,健康管理需解决SOH估计、剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测等核心问题。深度学习虽然具有特征自提取优势,但面临小样本过拟合和黑箱模型缺陷,而概率深度学习通过置信度量化可缓解数据冲突问题。实际应用中需遵循流程:构建输入输出模型与数据集,选择兼顾预测精度与不确定性量化的概率算法,训练验证后输出预测指标。未来需重点开发融合物理机理的可解释性概率模型,以提升电池健康预测可靠性,推动储能系统智能管理技术发展。

     

    Abstract: Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in power storage, but their capacity and power degradation problems highlight the importance of health state(SOH) assessment and degradation prediction. Although machine learning has been applied to battery performance simulation, state estimation and other fields, most studies lack the quantification of prediction uncertainty. Battery degradation involves the coupling of multiple factors such as SEI film growth and electrode cracking. Health management needs to solve six core problems such as SOH estimation and remaining life(RUL) prediction. Although deep learning has the advantage of self-extraction of features, it faces the defects of small sample over-fitting and black box model. Probabilistic deep learning can alleviate data conflict problems through confidence quantification. In practical applications, the process needs to be followed: Construct input and output models and data sets, select probabilistic algorithms that take into account both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification, and output prediction indicators after training and verification. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the development of interpretable probabilistic models that integrate physical mechanisms to improve the reliability of battery health prediction and promote the development of intelligent management technology for energy storage systems.

     

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