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马尔科夫模型在电力变压器智能化中的应用

Application of Markov Model in Intelligent Power Transformer

  • 摘要: 目前在高压设备的智能化配置领域没有一种有效的指导方法,为此以油浸式电力变压器为例,探索一种电力变压器智能化配置的理论方法。将电力变压器状态分类为7种,包括运行正常、绕组失效、铁心失效、套管失效、冷却系统失效、分接开关失效、绝缘介质失效,根据统计的历年电力变压器可靠性数据,以这7种状态构建变压器的马尔科夫过程,并计算马尔科夫平稳状态概率。构造观测矩阵计算变压器7种状态能被监测传感器监测到的概率,概率越大表明监测传感器越重要,并将智能变压器在线监测参数按传感器的重要性进行排序,为智能变压器的在线监测设备配置提供了一种有较强操作性的理论方法。

     

    Abstract: Currently in the field of high voltage equipment, intelligent configuration guidance is not an effective method of oil-immersed power transformers in this example, a power transformer to explore the theory of intelligent way configuration. For 7 kinds of the power transformer state classification, including normal operation, failure, winding core failure, casing failure, the failure of the cooling system, tap-changer failure, failure, such as insulating medium according to the statistics of the calendar year power transformer reliability data, in this state of 7 kinds of the construction of a transformer of markov process, to calculate the stationary state markov probability. The observation matrix is constructed to calculate the probability that 7 kinds of transformer faults can be detected by the monitoring sensor. The greater the probability, the more important the monitoring sensor is, and the online monitoring parameters of the intelligent transformer are sorted according to the importance of the sensor. The results show that this paper provides a theoretical method with strong operability for the on-line monitoring equipment configuration of intelligent transformer.

     

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