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基于数据完整度的混合人工智能绿电需求预测研究

Research on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Green Electricity Demand Forecast Based on Data Integrity

  • 摘要: 随着可再生能源的装机容量和发电量的不断增加,准确预测未来电力市场的绿电需求对于规划新能源装机容量和绿证交易决策至关重要。针对绿电相关历史数据有限的问题,提出了数据完整度指标,将其与卷积神经网络和长短期记忆网络相结合,构建了新型绿电需求预测模型,提高了模型对时间序列数据中重要特征的识别和学习能力。通过对江苏省2011年至2022年的实际数据以及根据数据完整度进行扩充的数据进行算例分析,验证了该模型相较于传统方法在预测精度方面的优越性。

     

    Abstract: As the installed capacity and generation of renewable energy continues to increase, accurately predicting the green electricity demand of the future electricity market is crucial for planning new energy installed capacity and green certificate trading decisions. Aiming at the problem of limited historical data related to green electricity, this paper proposes a data integrity index, which is combined with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network to build a new green electricity demand prediction model, which improves the model′s ability to recognize and learn important features in time series data. By analyzing the actual data of Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2022 and the data expanded according to the data integrity, the superiority of the model in forecasting accuracy compared with the traditional method is proved.

     

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