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基于格点化气象因子优化处理的光伏短期预测功率效益研究

Research on Short Term Power Efficiency of Photovoltaic Forecasting Based on Grid Based Meteorological Factor Optimization Processing

  • 摘要: 针对现有光伏场站光功率预测精度无法满足电网调度需求的现状,利用历史气象因子、光功率数据,首先计算其相关性系数,提取影响较大的气象因子;然后对网格化数值预报模式输出的气象因子进行格点化优化处理;最后比对优化处理前后光功率预测精度效益。研究表明:相对湿度、气温与光功率存在显著的相关性关系;数值预报优化处理前后气温与实测气温的平均相对误差分别为1.74、0.8℃,优化模式能显著提高气象因子精确度;优化处理前后光功率计算值与实测功率较接近,在功率波峰位置,计算准确度由处理前的76%提升至95%。

     

    Abstract: In response to the current situation where the accuracy of solar power prediction in existing photovoltaic stations cannot meet the needs of power grid dispatch, this article uses historical meteorological factors and solar power data to first calculate their correlation coefficients and extract meteorological factors with significant impact. Secondly, perform grid optimization on the meteorological factors output by the grid based numerical forecasting model. Finally, compare the accuracy and benefits of optical power prediction before and after optimization processing. Research has shown that there is a significant correlation between relative humidity, temperature, and light power. The average relative error between the optimized numerical forecast and the measured temperature is 1.74 ℃ and 0.8 ℃, respectively. The optimized model can significantly improve the accuracy of meteorological factors. The calculated values of optical power before and after optimization are close to the measured power. At the power peak position, the calculation accuracy has increased from 76% before optimization to 95% after optimization.

     

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