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基于LSTM深度网络的配变负荷预测及调整研究

Research on Load Prediction and Adjustment of Distribution Substation Based on LSTM Deep Networks

  • 摘要: 随着可再生能源,如光伏、风能和太阳能的广泛接入电网,电力公司亟需实施精确的短期负荷预测,以确保电网的稳定运行。采用了数据分解技术来消除负荷数据中的噪声和随机干扰,引入变分模态分解(VMD)算法来将原始负荷序列分解为不同频率的简单子序列。基于这些子序列,提出了一种结合VMD和改进CNN-LSTM的组合预测方法。实例分析表明,VMD-DA-RCLSTM模型的RMSE、MAPE、MAE指标均有所降低,说明所提组合预测模型有助于提高电力负荷预测的准确性。

     

    Abstract: With the widespread access of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic, wind, and solar to the grid, there is an urgent need for electric utilities to implement accurate short-term load forecasting to ensure the stable operation of the grid. In this paper, a data decomposition technique is employed to eliminate noise and random disturbances in the load data, and a variational modal decomposition(VMD) algorithm is introduced to decompose the original load sequence into simple subsequences of different frequencies. Based on these subsequences, a combined prediction method combining VMD and improved CNN-LSTM is proposed in this paper. From the example analysis, it is shown that the RMSE, MAPE, and MAE indexes of the VMD-DA-RCLSTM model are reduced, which indicates that the proposed combined forecasting model helps to improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.

     

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